Super Tuesday for Democrats in 2020 was a stark reminder that the high-level institutional levers of the Democratic party are still alive and well. With little-to-no organizing presence across a diverse collection of states, Joe Biden produced a significant performance that has reshaped the nomination process. As polling rapidly shifted in the course of 72 hours, it became clear that a significant number of late-deciding voters had returned to Biden after months of trepidation. This represents a significant jump from 2016, when only 22% of voters said the same.
Nonetheless, our internal and client research shows that the most important victory for Democrats on Super Tuesday was overall increase in voter participation, across almost all of the states that held elections. Texas and Virginia stand out as extreme outliers for increases in turnout from the 2016 Democratic primary. With only a 5% increase in overall population from 2016, Texas saw a 50.1% increase in their Democratic primary electorate. Similarly, Virginia, with only a 2% increase overall population since 2016, saw an increase of 41.4% in their Democratic primary electorate.
What accounts for this difference? Deep democracy: the political giving strategy of stacking your contributions early and vertically over a political cycle in a geographic region to candidates, movement organizations, and intermediaries who strategically complement each other, making it likelier to win races formerly deemed impossible.
The increase in Texas voter participation can be directly attributed to the work of organizations like the Texas Organizing Project (TOP). TOP is a year-round organizing operation that organizes Black and Latino communities in Dallas, Harris and Bexar counties with the goal of transforming Texas into a state where working people of color have the power and representation they deserve. Similarly in Virginia, long-time movement actors like the New Virginia Majority have been working to expand the electorate through state house municipal elections for almost 20 years. This resulted in last year's trifecta in Virginia and the progressive policies we have seen from their State House in 2020. Both Texas and Virginia had the highest Democratic turnout gains since 2016, and it's clear that grassroots organizing has trickled up to the highest level of campaigning.
(via New York Times. States not complete in counting have been estimated to 100%)
While the record turnout is exciting, the level of last minute decision making in this election is startling. A historically large field of candidates gave the media decisive authority in controlling the narrative around electability and seriousness. This strategy was brought to a fever pitch in the last two days of Super Tuesday, when Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out to endorse Vice President Joe Biden. The onslaught of unearned media along with the Bloomberg effect made it clear that moderates and centrists united against the progressive wing of Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders.
For older voters across the racial and socioeconomic spectrum, Biden came to represent the institutional connective tissue that has held together a disparate collection of diverse coalitions for generations within the Democratic party. While younger voters, urban white women with a college education, and/or women of color were clear in their support of Senator Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren for months, more traditional Democratic voting blocs chose to rebuke a critique of potential institutional change in the form of a party stalwart of nearly fifty years. It is this push and pull that will continue to define this primary process in the coming months. For one evening at least, many Democrats expressed their desire for strengthening the tenuous institutional levers that have come to encompass the national Democratic coalition.
The remaining primary states are either moderate in political leanings, or home are to a primary electorate that is predominately African American. These states likely favor Biden, who has been overwhelmingly winning black voters in the south, and benefits from a lifetime of political retail in midwestern states like Missouri, Michigan, and Ohio. However, as late deciders showed us on Super Tuesday, the minds of voters are constantly changing. The next debate is on March 15th, after a round of primaries on Tuesday, March 10th. It will feature Sanders and Biden head to head, something the Biden campaign is likely dreading if the ongoing tactic of closing events to the press and a general avoidance of media engagement overall is any indication.
Rivera Consulting Inc. will continue to track the pulse of the 2020 Presidential Primary with updated research on primary participation trends that highlight the payoff of grassroots voter engagement and movement base-building outreach strategies. Hear us discuss all this and more on our Deep Democracy podcast. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!